Utah still tops the nation in number of children, but its lead is shrinking

SALT LAKE CITY (KSL.com) — Utah continues to have the highest percentage of children in the nation, but its lead is shrinking as the state — and the nation’s — population ages.

About 26.6% of Utah’s population was under 18 in 2024, over 2 percentage points above any other state, the U.S. Census Bureau reported in new estimates on Thursday. However, the gap continues to slide, as Utah’s percentage dropped from 27.3% in 2023, and from 29% during the last official count in 2020.

Meanwhile, one of the country’s fastest-growing states made ground in the category. Texas placed second, again, narrowing its gap by 0.4 percentage points over the past year because its child population percentage didn’t decrease as quickly as Utah’s.

Nebraska (24.1%) and South Dakota (23.9%), as well as Alaska and Oklahoma (tied at 23.6%) rounded out the top five. Vermont (17.4%) had the lowest percentage among states in a list anchored by the New England region. Maine (17.6%), New Hampshire (17.7%), Rhode Island (18.4%) and Massachusetts (19%) rounded out the bottom five among states.

Puerto Rico (15%) and the District of Columbia (18.5%) were both near the bottom of the list among U.S. districts and territories, as the nation’s percentage slid slightly from 21.7% to 21.5% from 2023 to 2024.

The new numbers are some of the first characteristics tied to the 2024 state population estimates the Census Bureau released in December, which tied Utah with Texas as third among states for population percentage growth. Federal demographers used a suite of federal data sources to calculate population and demographic changes between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024.

The findings aren’t much of a surprise because Utah’s and the U.S.’s declining birth rates began around the time of the Great Recession nearly two decades ago.

The Beehive State, which was once known for its high fertility rates, slid to 10th among U.S. states in 2023, according to a review of federal data that the University of Utah Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute released last week.

“Economic factors such as housing and child care costs and broader social factors like postponement of marriage and childbearing all influence fertility-rate declines,” Emily Harris, a senior demographer at the institute, said in a statement.

Net migration has been a larger factor in Utah’s growth in recent years, but that has also slowed recently, likely because rising housing costs are “moderating our growth,” Natalie Gochnour, director of the Gardner Policy Institute, said earlier this year.

All of this has, in turn, lowered the percentage of children in the state.

It has also created many new challenges. Ogden’s Bonneville Elementary is slated to close this year, partially because of enrollment challenges, marking the school district’s fourth elementary school closure since 2019. Salt Lake City closed four elementary schools in 2024, while the Granite School District nixed three schools in 2022, among other recent examples.

Cities and towns have needed to review other impacts of change, such as mobility, health care services and community design, to reflect aging populations.

Utah still has an advantage over most states because it remains the youngest in the nation, which means it still has time to navigate these challenges, Mallory Bateman, director of demographic research at the Gardner Policy Institute, explained last year.

“We’ve got a lot of examples we can turn to look for other communities that have maybe done things well, or if they haven’t done them well, and improve on the methods and models that they’ve created,” she said.