By Lee Jong-eun
Since Donald Trump’s ascendency into national politics a decade ago, Republicans and Democrats have generally agreed on one political trend: an electoral realignment is taking place in U.S. politics. The two parties have, however, disagreed on which party would benefit more from the political realignment.
Republicans pointed to Trump’s appeal among traditionally Democratic-leaning voters, such as blue-collar, working-class white men. Heading into the 2024 election, the Republican Party predicted that Trump’s appeal would expand further into blue-collar, working-class voters among ethnic minorities, particularly within Latino and African American communities.
Democrats, along with some anti-Trump Republicans, have argued that a significant segment of traditionally Republican-leaning voters has shifted toward the Democratic Party due to their aversion to Trump’s policies and personality. Specifically, suburban, college-educated, white-collar voters were seen as defecting from the Republican Party. Heading into the 2024 election, the Democratic Party anticipated that suburban white women, in particular, would be galvanized by the issue of abortion rights and drastically realign their votes in favor of their party. Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, once remarked, “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Philadelphia.”
For both parties, the key to winning the 2024 election was to use a South Korean analogy, “keeping in the house rabbits while bringing over the mountain rabbits.” In other words, minimize defections within their political base while expanding support among voters outside the base. And the 2024 election outcome revealed the Republican presidential candidate ultimately won more “rabbits” than his Democratic rival.
According to national exit polls, Trump significantly expanded his support among traditionally Democratic-leaning voters, including African American and Latino men, union households, young voters and Muslim voters. Vice President Kamala Harris did expand support among several traditional Republican-leaning groups. Compared to Biden’s performance in the 2020 election, Harris increased her margin over Trump among white voters with college degrees, voters aged 65 or older and voters in higher income levels.
However, Harris’ gains (despite her campaign’s touting of endorsements from prominent Republican figures such as Liz Chaney) were insufficient to offset the loss of votes within the Democratic-leaning electorate to Trump. Harris’ campaign also struggled with a decline in turnout among Democratic voters, which resulted in an electorate with a higher proportion of Trump-aligned demographics. Ultimately, Harris was unable to win enough “mountain rabbits” to compensate for the loss of “house rabbits” who either stayed home or voted for her opponent.
It may appear simple then to conclude that the Republican Party achieved a larger electoral coalition from the political realignment. Republicans, in particular, might find reassurance in Trump’s expansion of support among ethnic minority voters, which could provide their party with a competitive electoral base in an increasingly ethnically diverse U.S. society. However, there are two important caveats when analyzing the implications of this year’s presidential election.
First, Trump’s victory may not be a decisive indication of an electoral alignment toward the Republican Party. In several battleground states, Trump outperformed other Republican candidates. While Trump swept swing states in the Rust Belt (e.g., Michigan, Wisconsin) and the Sun Belt (e.g., Arizona, Nevada), the Republican Senate candidates, albeit by a narrow margin, lost in their races (some Trump voters split their tickets or did not vote in the down-ballot races). Republican candidates’ struggle in winning over Trump voters raises questions about whether voters who aligned with Trump in the presidential election have also aligned with the Republican Party as a whole. Without Trump on the ballot, the Republican Party may struggle to retain the voters he has brought into his coalition.
Second, while the Democratic Party may appear to have drawn the shorter end of the stick in terms of political realignment, they have expanded support among demographic groups with higher political engagement. College-educated, white-collar and higher-income voters who have shifted toward the Democratic Party are often described as “high-propensity voters,” meaning they are more likely to participate regularly in elections.
In contrast, blue-collar, lower-income voters without college degrees who align with Trump are often categorized as “low-propensity voters,” meaning they are less likely to vote in non-presidential election years. Even with Trump’s reelection, the Democratic Party may hold turnout advantages in future congressional and statewide elections. In fact, Democrats have overperformed in recent special elections, where turnout is generally lower, and outcomes are more likely determined by higher-engaged voters.
To be sure, this year’s presidential election was a narrow yet decisive win for Trump, who won both the electoral college and the popular vote. Losing some voters within the traditional party base yet also attracting new voters from outside the base, Trump ultimately succeeded, to quote one expert, in “first breaking, then putting back together” the Republican coalition. The challenge now for Trump and especially the Republican Party is to ensure not only to retain their new coalition but also to keep their electorate motivated, even in the post-Trump elections.
And as for the Democrats, the beauty of American democracy may be that they will have another chance for a “rabbit chase” four years later.
Lee Jong-eun is an assistant professor of political science at North Greenville University.
English (United States) ·