If recent polls are to be believed, Donald Trump can’t win a General Election—and he can’t lose a Republican primary. It’s a weird scenario because the former would normally preclude the latter.
Let’s start with the notion that he can’t beat Joe Biden. Anyone who watched Trump defy the experts in 2016 should be skeptical of such declarations. But according to a recent poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, “53% of Americans say they would definitely not support [Trump] if he is the nominee.”
This leaves Trump with 47% of the electorate that is “gettable,” which is an important caveat when you consider that he picked the Electoral College lock by winning just 46% of the popular vote in 2016. However, in addition to the 53% who definitely won’t vote for Trump in 2024, “Another 11% say they would probably not support him in November 2024”—which is to say that 64% of voters are unlikely to support Trump.