Trump's return

By John Burton

Donald Trump’s return to the White House means bad news for the Blue House.

Take the economy. Trump is threatening to impose a 10 to 20 percent tariff on all foreign products imported into the United States, including those from Korea. But the potential economic damage on Korea wielded by Trump goes beyond that. During his first term, he nearly ripped up the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and he might do so in his upcoming term. This would reduce Korean access to the American market unless a new trade pact more favorable to the U.S. is negotiated.

Korea could also be caught up in a looming trade war between the U.S. and China, its two largest trading partners. Washington might demand that Seoul reduce or end sales of advanced semiconductors to China, which in turn could jeopardize Korea’s trade relations with Beijing.

These possible setbacks would occur at a time when Korea is already struggling with an economic slowdown due to weak domestic consumption and growing trade barriers around the world. In addition, Korea risks slipping behind global rivals in growth sectors such as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and semiconductors.

Meanwhile, Korea’s security alliance with the U.S. appears under threat in a second Trump administration. His notorious transactional view of relations with traditional allies does not bode well despite Korea being one of America’s most crucial allies in Asia.

Trump has called for a substantial increase in defense cost-sharing by Seoul from a current annual payment of $1.1 billion to as much as $10 billion, describing Korea as “a money machine.” During the election campaign, Trump said, “We protect them (South Korea) from North Korea and others, but they don’t pay us anything, and I said ‘This is crazy.’” There are concerns that Trump might decide to withdraw the 28,500 U.S. troops based in Korea unless Seoul pays up.

Such remarks could provoke a backlash of nationalist sentiment among the Korean public, further weakening the alliance at a time when China’s regional influence is growing and North Korea has become a more assertive nuclear-armed power. In response, Korea might choose to pursue a more independent defense policy by developing its own nuclear weapons, an idea that has gained wide public support.

President Yoon Suk Yeol is reportedly practicing his golf game in hopes of establishing a personal rapport with Trump on the golf links. But as The Economist, the British newsweekly, recently noted, Trump is drawn to powerful leaders of important countries that can get things done, while showing disdain for leaders he considers weak because they are ineffective. Yoon falls into the latter category with his poor approval ratings.

To add insult to injury, Trump might decide to resume wooing North Korea leader Kim Jong-un. Some observers believe that the resumption of the diplomatic bromance between Trump and Kim is unlikely because of North Korea’s support for Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

But Trump made several favorable references to Kim during his 2024 presidential campaign, even as he criticized U.S. military support for South Korea as a terrible bargain. It appears clear that Trump regards Kim as the type of strong and efficient leader he admires.

“It’s nice to get along when somebody has a lot of nuclear weapons or otherwise,” Trump said of Kim this year. “He’d like to see me back, too. I think he misses me, if you want to know the truth.” One sign that Trump may already be preparing renewed contacts is his appointment of Alex Wong, who helped organize the earlier summits with Kim, as deputy national security adviser.

Kim might be amenable to resuming talks with Trump because he now has more bargaining power since he last met the U.S. president in 2019, as North Korea has significantly expanded its nuclear and missile arsenal since then.

A possible deal would involve the U.S. easing economic sanctions on North Korea in return for an arms control agreement governing Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile force. This would amount to a recognition of North Korea as a nuclear power. But it could also be broader in scope, including diplomatic representation in each other’s capital, the repeal of Washington’s designation of Pyongyang as a state sponsor of terrorism, development assistance and a formal agreement ending the Korean War.

Such an arrangement would represent a humiliating blow to Yoon, particularly when Pyongyang recently designated Seoul as an enemy state and rejected it as a dialogue partner. This would give added impetus to South Korea acquiring its own nuclear weapons.

Trump’s ego and desire to shape his historical legacy may convince him to engage in high-stakes diplomacy with North Korea even at the cost of undermining the U.S. alliance with Seoul. In turn, Yoon may find it prudent to seek greater alignment with China, helping alter the balance of power in Northeast Asia.

John Burton ([email protected]), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington-based journalist and consultant.