S. Korea's ties with Syria could drive N. Korea closer to Russia, China: experts

Pyongyang likely to pursue new Cold War diplomacy

By Kwak Yeon-soo

South Korea’s establishment of diplomatic ties with Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime is likely to deal a blow to North Korea, according to experts.

On Tuesday, the government announced it is looking to establish a formal diplomatic relationship with Syria, the only remaining U.N. member state with which it has no formal ties.

A South Korean government delegation, led by Kim Eun-jeong, director-general of the African and Middle Eastern Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, visited Damascus earlier this month and met with Syrian interim government officials, including Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani.

“When we expressed our intent to establish diplomatic relations with Syria, they responded by saying that they welcome and are ready for the move,” a senior foreign ministry official said on condition of anonymity.

“As we confirmed the Syrian interim government’s willingness to establish diplomatic ties with Seoul, we will begin a full-scale review of forging diplomatic relations.” However, no specific timeline has been set for forging ties with Syria.

Experts said they were surprised by the South’s proactive move to form ties with the new Syrian leadership. However, they advised the government to adopt a cautious approach in engaging with Syria’s new administration.

“Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, former leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has roots in extremist Islamist movements. But he appears to have moderated his views, promising a regime that would respect minority Shia Muslims,” Jang Ji-hyang, director of the Middle East and North Africa Center at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said.

She argued that the interests of Syria's interim government are not aligned with those of North Korea, precluding any strategic rationale for maintaining close ties.

“North Korea has maintained brotherly ties with the fallen Assad regime for decades (since 1966). For Syria’s interim leaders, Assad is an enemy,” Jang said.

North Korea is believed to have pulled all its diplomats out of Syria after the fall of the Assad regime in late 2024.

“It seems like Syria’s new leadership is looking to form diplomatic ties with the West, hoping that they lift sanctions. However, South Korea should adopt a cautious policy regarding the evolving situation in Syria. The government has to align with the U.S. and Western countries amid the uncertainty,” Park Won-gon, professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said.

Experts believe North Korea will pursue a new diplomatic strategy aimed at strengthening ties with Russia and China in the face of losing its longtime allies. Last year, South Korea formed official diplomatic ties with Cuba, which was regarded as one of the most steadfast allies of North Korea.

“It appears that North Korea will be dealt a considerable political and psychological blow if South Korea forges diplomatic ties with Syria,” Park said.

“It is losing friends in the Middle East, and several European Union countries that were once sympathetic to North Korea now see the reclusive regime as a real threat following North Korea’s troop deployment to the Ukraine war.”

However, the professor said the North may find an opportunity to broaden its diplomatic landscape as the U.S.-China strategic rivalry intensifies.

Cho Han-bum, a senior research fellow at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, said North Korea will likely focus on strengthening relations with its strategic partners, such as China and Russia.

“Recently, North Korea’s diplomatic network has been reduced. It closed about one-fifth of its diplomatic missions. Under such circumstances, the regime will likely focus on engaging with authoritarian states that fall into the category of North Korea’s new Cold War diplomacy. That includes strengthening ties with Russia and managing a relationship with China,” he said.

Park added that North Korea could step up efforts to expand ties with BRICS, a multinational group led by Russia and China, as well as deepen cooperation with Iran to break free of its diplomatic isolation.