The question is not why Proposition HH, the Jared Polis-backed attempt to slow down runaway property taxes, failed so miserably at the ballot.
We already know the answers, starting with the fact that HH was a confusing, seriously flawed referendum that hardly anyone other than Polis and his trickle-down-economics buddy, Arthur Laffer, actually seemed to like.
Progressives were torn. Conservative TABORites, demanding their TABOR refunds be financed forevermore, were opposed. Everyone else was more or less perplexed.
And, from my perspective, the best part about the referendum — that it would dramatically increase school funding — was rarely mentioned so as not to scare voters into thinking that they might have to sacrifice some portion of possible future TABOR refunds in order to, uh, better educate kids.
Even Polis, in pushing the referendum, would say he wished the proposed 10-year property tax rates in Proposition HH were lower. Of course, Polis is the so-called progressive governor who has called for the end of Colorado state income taxes.
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Tax policy is usually confusing. Tax policy that you can’t properly explain to voters in a single sentence — or, for that matter, even in a single paragraph — is not just confusing, but basically doomed.
No, the real question, now that Polis has called for a special session of the legislature to try to salvage the deal, is why he doesn’t seem to have a Plan B.
In announcing a special session, Polis tried out a cringe-inducing, break-glass-in-an-emergency joke, complete with Polis in safety goggles and with baseball bat in hand, saying that a special session, which Republicans had been demanding, was his Plan B all along.
Ha, ha? I just hope it wasn’t a Rockies bat because the best he could have hoped for was a foul ball.
Surprisingly, when Polis announced the special session, he also actually announced he didn’t yet have any plan — B, C or otherwise — to present as the legislature reopens next week.
Excuse me if I’m a little skeptical, though. I’m guessing Polis has a roughed-out plan, at minimum, that he’ll let others carry until the heat from his devastating loss begins to diminish.
I admit I have a habit — and it may be a bad habit — of too often looking at Polis’ policy decisions through the lens of what I’m convinced is his plan to someday make a (2028 anyone?) presidential run.
As an example, when Polis crushed the idea of safe-injection sites for illegal drug users as a way to address the fentanyl overdose crisis, that looked to me like the safe move for anyone thinking of ever running for president.
In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom didn’t just threaten, as Polis did, to veto a safe-injection site bill. He actually did veto it. And we know Newsom is running for president someday. He might even be running for president in 2024 if Joe Biden were to decide, in the face of terrible polling news, not to run again.
But Polis’ take on Proposition HH wasn’t about presidential aspirations.
Property values have skyrocketed. Colorado voters, who are used to unusually low property-tax rates, demanded action. The consensus was that something needed to be done. And so Proposition HH came through the legislature with the kinds of compromises that can work at the statehouse but rarely do well when voters — after being predictably deluged with apocalyptic-style advertising from all sides — have to decide what to do.
Many voters who couldn’t decide simply decided to vote no. I have a progressive friend, meanwhile, who told me he voted yes, but only at the last moment, and in spite of Polis’ support for HH.
The good news is that the legislators have little choice but to pass something, and soon. If they don’t, property tax increases as high as 40% will go into effect. And if nothing happens legislatively, conservatives have already collected enough signatures to put forward a referendum next year that would set a hard cap on property tax collections, which could be a disaster — yeah, I’m going apocalyptic, too — for school funding.
Even better news is what we’re hearing from Democratic legislative leaders who now seem to understand that Proposition HH — which they, along with Polis, supported — did not provide sufficient relief for low-income homeowners, for renters or for others in real need.
For example, here’s a statement from Colorado Senate President Steve Fenberg: “The voters had their say about a long-term, comprehensive approach. Our caucus will now be laser-focused on providing short-term relief to those who are most vulnerable to the rising cost of living — which means working families, renters, and those on fixed incomes — while protecting our schools and fire districts.”
Proposition HH provided virtually no relief for renters, who make up about a third of Coloradans. And the tax relief for homeowners was overwhelmingly designed to benefit the wealthy rather than those who have most keenly felt the sticker shock from rapidly rising property values. If Democrats can make just those two changes, that would be a vast improvement, even if one that doesn’t solve the property-tax problem long term.
The question, as always, is how to pay for any reduction in tax rates, and whether cuts in TABOR refunds will still be on the table as an option.
The safe bet is that in the wake of the defeat of Proposition HH Republicans will be especially energized on TABOR, which is dependably a contentious issue with voters. Of course, Democrats still enjoy overwhelming majorities in both houses.
An even safer bet is that Polis may not have announced a plan, but nothing will pass through the legislature without the governor’s stamp on it. He’s a politician who listens closely to the voters. I’d guess he already has a pretty good idea of what the voters want now.
Maybe the safest bet of all, though, is that a single-issue legislative session on property-tax relief — especially if it involves TABOR — will be even wilder than the Proposition HH campaign. I’d advise anyone watching to have their safety goggles handy.
Mike Littwin has been a columnist for too many years to count. He has covered Dr. J, four presidential inaugurations, six national conventions and countless brain-numbing speeches in the New Hampshire and Iowa snow. Sign up for Mike’s newsletter.
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