Is Lee Jae-myung's diplomatic shift an attempt at redemption?

By Choo Jae-woo

Humans can alter their beliefs overnight for selfish reasons, however, making such behavioral changes in succession can be problematic. Unpredictable politicians throw morality into doubt. If legal charges for law infractions and disorderly conduct are filed, the politician will lose public trust. Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, has followed this small plan through his whole life. Lee’s claims are telling. He is involved in 12 charges, including perjury, fraudulent information disclosure during elections (general and presidential), false allegations, violations of the Public Official Election Act and preferential treatment in development. Cognitive dissonance — one inconsistency leading to another — is evident throughout Lee’s career.

Many cast doubts over Lee for his alleged lack of integrity, honesty, morality, loyalty and patriotism. Politicians can alter their ideas and opinions as circumstances change. That shift might happen in minutes or hours. If ordinary politicians abruptly change their opinions, convictions, or perceptions, the people will distrust their leadership without convincing reasoning and persuasion. Lee recently boasted about his support for the ROK-U.S. alliance, despite his long-standing anti-Americanism and anti-alliance stance. His fast change of view is attributed to political cunning.

As an early presidential election looms, Lee seems to be changing tactics in line with President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment for invoking martial law in December. Many questions remain. Are his recent political moves motivated by redemption? Is it a political tactic, as his party is fixated on him as their single presidential candidate? Perhaps the latter, as perceptions are hard to change overnight. The deep-seated beliefs of an ideology or ism impact one’s conduct. According to Robert Gilpin’s famous international relations book, "Perception and Misperception in International Politics," education, personal experience and an innate milieu in which a person is born, schooled and groomed through a specific ideology, can shape perception.

Lee, who claims to be from a proletariat family and was a “radical student” in college, has maintained rather skeptical views on the South Korea-U.S. alliance and Japan’s imperialist past. Yet he seems to want to change everything. On Dec. 26, Lee calmly said, “Personally, I have a deep affection for Japan ... Korea must prioritize cooperation between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, as well as bilateral cooperation with Japan,” during a National Assembly meeting with the Japanese Ambassador Koichi Mizushima.

He said, “With the inauguration of the Trump administration, strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance and strategic economic partnership has become even more important.” He cited Deng Xiaoping's famous phrase, “It doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice,” and advocated for a postideological, postbloc reality to resolve crises and advance the economy based on pragmatism. On Jan. 22, he told The Economist that he supports South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation and that Japan’s enhanced defense capabilities do not threaten South Korea. His criticism of the 2022 South Korea-U.S.-Japan military exercises contrasts with this strategy.

Most Koreans were surprised by his statements. None expected Lee to modify his diplomatic attitude so drastically. This confused Koreans, including his party, who wondered if he meant it mainly because his past views contradict it. The same leader called U.S. forces an “occupying army.” “Instead of deploying THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, a type of missile), we should install boilers for you,” he said, calling a 2022 Yoon-Biden summit “sucker diplomacy.” He sabotaged a U.S. senators’ memorial visit in 2021 as a presidential candidate, displaying his anti-Americanism. He bluntly asked if they recognized that “Korea was annexed by Japan because the U.S. approved it through the Taft-Katsura Agreement." Then he added, “In the end, it’s an undeniable fact that Korea, not Japan, became divided, and the Korean War occurred as a consequence of this agreement.” He was anti-American.

Lee opposed supporting Ukraine in the conflict, arguing that deteriorating relations with Russia would worsen Korean Peninsula security. Beyond respect for powerful states, he condoned Russia’s illegal attack, which violated sovereignty and the ban on force. In a February 2022 presidential debate, he called Ukraine’s president a “six-month novice politician” and justified Russia’s invasion by invoking NATO’s eastward expansion.

He publicly supported “dirty peace.” He has consistently stressed that “a dirty peace is better than a victorious war,” encouraging patience and endurance in inter-Korean relations despite North Korea’s provocations. His stance in China is “fold your hands and simply say ‘xiexie (thank you)’ no matter what.” He asked, “Why should we get involved in the Taiwan Strait issue? What does it matter to us what happens between China and Taiwan or how their domestic affairs unfold? Why provoke China?” Lee also calls Japan a “militarily hostile state.” He described a South Korea-Japan meeting as a “surrender ceremony pleading for reconciliation” and the April 2024 general election as a “new Korea-Japan war.” He even alleged that South Korea-U.S.-Japan military exercises against North Korea were “pro-Japanese defense,” employing “Japanese military boots” to sow fear and enmity.

After Yoon’s December martial law fiasco, Lee's party submitted its first article of impeachment. The article accused Yoon as guilty of pursuit of “values-based diplomacy.” It claims that the administration has ignored geopolitical balance and pursued an unorthodox Japan-centric diplomatic approach that has alienated North Korea, China and Russia. It has appointed pro-Japan officials to key government positions and imposed self-isolation in Northeast Asia, raising conflict risk. This plan abdicates the state's national security and public protection duties. This shows Lee and his party's views on North Korea, China and Russia compared to friends and allies.

The adage goes, “A leopard can’t change its spots.” People cannot change overnight. You cannot fix a man. Although Lee and his party deleted the complaint against Yoon’s value-based diplomacy as one of the reasons for impeachment in response to public outrage, this was due to legal considerations rather than a shift in diplomatic position. It was so out of context that it did not legally constitute a charge. His actual innate nature will emerge when it comes to decision-making if he is elected president, as he wishes. His ideologically dictated perception will constitute a betrayal of allies and friends.

Choo Jae-woo is a professor at Kyung Hee University. The views expressed here are the author's own and do not reflect the editorial direction of The Korea Times.