[INTERVIEW] Why Ukraine is being sidelined by Trump in peace talks

North Korea expected to continue troop deployments even as Trump-Putin negotiations proceed

By Lee Hyo-jin

Three years have passed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Initially, the war felt distant for many South Koreans. But this perception changed dramatically last October when North Korea began deploying thousands of troops to Russia’s Kursk region to support Moscow.

Now, as U.S. President Donald Trump pushes for peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, global attention is focused on when — and under what conditions — the conflict might end, and what this could mean for Moscow-Pyongyang relations.

Doo Jin-ho, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), said Trump seems to view ending the war not just as a means to achieve global peace, but more as a crucial step toward normalizing Washington's relations with Moscow.

"Things are moving faster than expected. My cautious prediction is that a peace plan with gradual steps toward ending the war could emerge as early as March, with a potential meeting between Trump and Putin around that period,” Doo said in a recent interview with The Korea Times.

Doo, an expert on Russia and North Korea, studied at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations and Russia’s Frunze Military Academy. He previously worked in the South Korean Ministry of National Defense’s policy planning division and taught North Korean studies at the Korea Military Academy.

"Ending a three-year-long war through just a few weeks of negotiations will be extremely difficult. A more realistic approach might be an armistice. There needs to be a period to verify and monitor the ceasefire regime before gradually moving toward a formal end to the war," Doo said.

"However, unfortunately for Ukraine, it will continue to have little say in negotiations."

Kyiv was excluded from a high-profile meeting between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia, Tuesday (local time), with delegations led by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

As U.S.-Russia talks gain momentum, Trump has escalated his rhetoric against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling him a dictator and warning that he must act quickly or risk losing his country. In a Fox News interview on Friday, he also said "I don't think he's very important to be at meetings [of the peace deal]."

In contrast, Trump has taken a conciliatory tone toward Putin, describing U.S. negotiations with Russia as "successful."

"Recent developments suggest that it is not Putin but Trump who is in a hurry. He seeks to secure tangible results in Ukraine within this year, aiming to solidify his global leadership in the early stages of his presidency," Doo said.

"From his perspective, a swift end to the war could help revive the global economy and recover U.S.-Russia ties, which, in turn, might weaken Russia’s alignment with China, his biggest geopolitical concern. This can also prevent China and Russia from forming a unified global supply chain.”

To accelerate negotiations, Trump appears to be offering carrots to Putin, including the possibility of readmitting Russia into the G7. Russia was previously a member of the group when it was known as the G8, until its membership was suspended following its 2014 annexation of Crimea.

The researcher explained that Moscow’s conditions for a peace deal are quite clear: a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, recognition of Russia’s territorial gains and legal protections for ethnic Russians in Ukraine, including the use of the Russian language.

"One additional demand that could emerge is a change in Ukraine’s leadership, since Putin does not recognize Zelenskyy as a legitimate negotiating partner,” Doo said.

As Zelenskyy’s official term ended in May 2024, Russian officials may worry that any peace deal signed with him might be overturned when his successor takes office.

Trump has also attacked the Ukrainian leader. In a recent press conference, he claimed that Zelenskyy has just a 4 percent approval rating at home, a claim which Zelenskyy attributed to disinformation from Russia.

All of this suggests that any peace or armistice deal is likely to reflect Putin's demands more than Zelenskyy's, Doo noted. And if that happens, it could mark the end of the U.S.-led international liberal order.

“This would mean that, under Trump, the U.S. will no longer act as the world’s police,” he said.

North Korea's lessons from troop deployment

Meanwhile, Doo said the deployment of troops in the war has given North Korean forces valuable combat experience in modern warfare, an opportunity that could significantly enhance Pyongyang’s military capabilities.

“Nothing beats real-world military experience,” he said. “This war has given North Korea a rare chance to modernize its outdated conventional weapons. Drones have played a crucial role in the war in Ukraine, and North Korea is expected to use these lessons to significantly develop its unmanned aerial vehicles.”

He added, “This has major implications for the South Korean military, which has had no de facto real-world combat experience since the Vietnam War.”

He also noted that the ongoing negotiations do not necessarily mean North Korea will scale down its military involvement in Ukraine.

“Many assume that peace negotiations would lead to a ceasefire, but that’s not the case for Putin, who seems to have learned from the failed peace talks in Belarus in February 2022 during the early stages of the war.”

South Korea’s intelligence agency estimates that North Korea has sent around 12,000 troops to Ukraine so far, with approximately 4,000 being either injured or killed. However, Doo suggested that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un remains steadfast in maintaining troop deployments despite these casualties.

“The regime appears to be learning from Russia’s policies on veterans support and is using them to silence dissent within the military. There are indications that those who participated in combat, as well as their families, are being rewarded not just financially but also with elevated social status,” Doo said.