How will the House elect its next speaker and will it be Rep. Kevin McCarthy?

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Today marks the start of the new Congress and with it, a new Speaker of the House - a crucial legislative role that is rarely understood outside of Capitol Hill and yet, is third in line for the presidency.

Following the razor-thin Republican majority in the House - a mere four seats - after the midterm elections in November, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is asking his colleagues to vote him yet again - this time as the 118th House Speaker. 

It's not the California lawmaker's first foray as majority leader- he first ran in 2015 when then-House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) stepped down after raucous and damaging infighting with members of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus.

Fast forward seven years and he is yet again, the party's nominee after failing to produce a 'red wave' of Republicans into office but just enough to win the lower chamber. He secured the support of most colleagues during a closed-door leadership vote in October and overcame a challenge from Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.)

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (D-CA) walks to the House Chambers of the U.S. Capitol Building on December 23, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

McCarthy is facing diehard opposition from a small number of conservative lawmakers who calls themselves 'the Never Kevin Caucus' in a 222-213 majority could well tank his nomination.

The NKs are led by Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona, Matt Gaetz of Florida, Bob Good of Virginia, Matt Rosendale of Montana and Ralph Norman of South Carolina - amongst others. 

Here’s what you need to know about how the House elects a speaker:

FIRST THINGS FIRST: NO SPEAKER, NO HOUSE 

While selecting a speaker is the first vote the House will take before new and returning lawmakers are sworn into office on Tuesday. As dictated by the Constitution, the session begins at 12 noon (Eastern) on January 3, and House members from both parties will join in the vote for speaker - the magic number to be declared the winner: 218

If the House cannot elect someone with a majority of its voting members, Plan B is a parliamentarian's nightmare. In short, someone, somehow needs to get to 218 votes before the floor is open for business.

The last speaker election to go beyond the first ballot was in 1923, when members took nine tries to name Frederick Gillett (R-Mass.) to the position. The all-time record for duration of a speaker vote was in the mid-1850s — when lawmakers took almost two months and 133 ballots before picking Nathaniel Banks, also of Massachusetts. 

The House can change the election rules allowing a simple majority of votes to become the speaker, but this could backfire for the Republicans since Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) could win a majority vote meaning the House and the Senate would both be under Democratic control - a highly unlikely scenario.

2BWB6KM Frederick H Gillett of Massachusetts, was re - elected Speaker of the House of Representatives on 5th December, when the Republican insurgents voted for him for the first time after a deadlock two days previously on December 14, 1923

The last speaker election to go beyond the first ballot was in 1923, when members took nine tries to name Frederick Gillett (R-Mass.)

Then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., holds a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, Dec. 22, 2022. Pelosi discussed the speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Congress and likened it to a similar speech by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, in the photo at left, which was attended by her father, a congressman from Maryland. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

(L-R) Then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks with Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) during a news conference with House Democrats about the Build Back Better legislation, outside of the U.S. Capitol on November 17, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) walks to the House Chambers of the U.S. Capitol Building on December 23, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

WHO CAN BE NOMINATED?

Just after the November 8 general election, both parties held an informal vote to decide who should lead their respective parties in January. McCarthy won the majority on the GOP vote in a closed-door session in November but not enough to cinch the deal. Democrats rallied behind Jeffries to become party's leader after Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California stepped down after losing the majority.

But once Congress enters a new session, members are not required to vote for the party's preferred candidate - or even a member of the House.  

President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump and even a senator, Republican Rand Paul of Kentucky, have received votes for House speaker.

LET THE VOTING BEGIN

Once the House is in session, the speaker nominee from each party is announced and a roll call vote is held by House members who are present and voting.

As of Tuesday morning, many politicians, pundits - even McCarthy himself remains skeptical that he will reach a majority to become speaker on the first ballot. Should he come up short, it is likely the clerk will repeat the roll call vote several times until he is able to garner a majority. McCarthy is expected to continue to make concessions with the holdouts until the moment he is able to grasp the gavel.

Since the House leadership election outcome is not a done deal, a speaker could be elected today after multiple attempts, delayed for day or weeks, or Congress could change the rules in order to get a simple majority.

Until a speaker is elected, Cheryl Lynn Johnson, the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives and Pelosi appointee, will preside over the lower chamber. 

The outgoing speaker will usually join the successor at the speaker's chair, where they will pass the gavel as a nod to the peaceful transition of power from one party leader to another. This time around, that will be Pelosi, the California Democrat who held the gavel for the last four years.

Source: www.dailymail.co.uk
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