[CONTRIBUTION] Too hot for peace

By Jennifer Morgan

Never before have there been so many armed conflicts as today. However, only a minority is aware that the climate crisis is helping drive these conflicts.

And yet, if global temperatures keep rising, it will literally be too hot for peace. If climate and environmental crises destroy the landscapes we live in and off, water will become scarce and food prices will skyrocket. If we fail to course-correct, a third of the world population will in future live in areas where it is too hot or too dry to survive.

Security is more than the absence of war. Even now, water scarcity in the summer months sows conflict between farmers and municipalities. Where storms, floods and fires rob people of their homes and their livelihoods, they seek refuge elsewhere, in other communities, towns and countries. The result are resource conflicts and suffering, as we have seen in Somalia where heat waves have caused a once-in-a-century drought. The global rise in grain prices triggered by the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine exacerbated the situation further. This disastrous combination was what caused conflicts over resources, a scenario that the al-Shabaab terrorist group used to recruit mercenaries. Terrorism feeding on hunger and desperation — this context continues to fan the flames of the conflict.

In other words, anyone thinking about security needs to think about climate as well — including here in Europe.

To fully understand how these issues interconnect, Germany asked its leading climate scientists, military strategists and intelligence services to work together for the first time to draw up a National Interdisciplinary Climate Risk Assessment — looking at risks at the global, national and European levels.

The assessment reveals that increasing disasters caused by extreme weather are endangering our health, infrastructure, supply chains and economy, also in the EU and Germany. Resource shortages and price hikes compound humanitarian crises, migration and conflicts worldwide. They cause soaring adaptation and reconstruction costs which will hit our economic growth and reduce investment potential. All these factors can indirectly exacerbate inequality and conflict, also in the EU. This also plays into the hands of extremists and populists.

The drastic facts presented in this assessment mean that we and each and every European government need to consider how we can better protect our country and our people.

For me, the answer is clear.

We need to drastically reduce greenhouse gases, especially those produced through combustion of fossil fuels and released through deforestation. The IPCC advises halving emissions in the next five years to reduce risk of more irreversible climate impacts. No matter what: every tenth of a degree less in global warming makes our lives safer.

In the EU, by decarbonizing our economy and energy systems we can strengthen our competitiveness and economic resilience. We can also increase energy security and independence, particularly by expanding renewable energies and continuing to reduce imports of fossil fuels.

However, we cannot curb the risks of climate change on our own. First and foremost, all the G20 need to cut our greenhouse gas emissions. For this to happen fast enough, we need cooperation and strong partnerships that benefit all sides — also beyond the G20. We must not forget the most vulnerable countries in these efforts. To date, Germany has set up more than 40 such climate, energy and development partnerships. These partnerships also bring global stability dividends. International climate policy is security and stability policy.

Germany’s National Interdisciplinary Climate Risk Assessment does not leave a shadow of a doubt: the longer it takes us to implement the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, the more dangerous and volatile our world will become. The transition to a clean, resilient and just economy and lifestyle is fundamentally in our security interests — and thus fundamental to world peace.

Jennifer Morgan is Germany’s special envoy for International Climate Action.