China launches live-fire military drill just 12 miles off the coast of Taiwan

China has launched its biggest ever live-fire military drills around Taiwan as its warships encircled the island with missiles due to be fired over it for the first time, amid warnings a single miscalculation could spiral into all-out war.

Beijing opened fire with ballistic missiles around 2pm local time that flew across the Taiwan Strait and landed in waters to the north east and south west of the island, Taipei's defence ministry said - as video released by Chinese state media showed the weapons being launched. Hypersonic missiles are also due to feature in the drills.

The exercises will last until Sunday and are due to include J-20 stealth fighters, long-range bombers, and China's most up-to-date corvettes and destroyers in what state media says is a rehearsal for an invasion. Beijing's two aircraft carriers - the Liaoning and Shandong - have also taken up positions nearby.

Foreign ministers from the ASEAN group of nations which share the eastern Pacific with China and Taiwan have urged 'restraint' today, saying the war games 'could lead to miscalculation, serious confrontation, open conflicts and unpredictable consequences among major powers.'

American forces - including the USS Ronald Raegan aircraft carrier which is forward-deployed with the Pacific Fleet - are thought to be lurking nearby, while missile-tracking spy planes have been sent to watch over the drills.  

Xi Jinping announced the exercises in fury over US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to the island which took place from Tuesday and Wednesday, making her the most-senior politician to visit since Newt Gingrich in 1997.

Pelosi - a long-time critic of China's human rights record and anti-democratic rulers - justified the visit by saying it showed America's continuing support for its ally. Tsai Ing-wen, the Taiwanese president, also welcomed the move.

But it came at a bad time for Xi, as he tries to project an image of strength ahead of Party Congress this autumn where he is expected to be given an historic third term in power which would mark the start of autocratic rule.

Xi has made the so-called 'reunification' of Taiwan with China his hoped-for legacy as he aims to become the country's greatest leader since Mao, despite the fact that the Communists have never ruled the island.

China's state-run Global Times newspaper said the drill exclusion zones have been drawn up in such a way as to blockade all the island's main ports, which would likely be the battle plan if Beijing were to invade.

Song Zhongping, a 'military expert' quoted by the Times, said the 'comprehensive and highly targeted' operations showed 'the determination of resolving Taiwan question once and for all'.

'In the event of a future military conflict, it is likely that the operational plans currently being rehearsed will be directly translated into combat operations,' he added.

'It means that our battle plan has been made clear to the US and the Taiwan authorities, and we are confident enough to inform them of the consequences of further provocation in this way.'

The war games threaten major disruption to one of the world's busiest shipping lanes which runs through the Taiwan strait, and have forced the island to divert huge amounts of air traffic that it relies upon to get crucial supplies - including food.

Nearly half the world's ships passed through the narrow Taiwan Strait - which separates the island from the Chinese mainland  - in the first seven months of this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The dramatic escalation in tensions was sparked by Pelosi's visit earlier this week as she became the highest-profile elected US official to visit Taiwan in 25 years.

She said her presence made it 'unequivocally clear' that the United States would 'not abandon' a democratic ally like Taiwan.

The exercises, which began around 12pm (4am GMT), involve 'live-firing', according to state media.

'Six major areas around the island have been selected for this actual combat exercise and during this period, relevant ships and aircraft should not enter the relevant waters and airspaces,' state broadcaster CCTV reported.

The exercises will take place in multiple zones around Taiwan - at some points within just 20 kilometres (12 miles) of the island's shore - and will conclude at midday on Sunday.

Taiwan's defence ministry said it was closely watching the drills and that the island was prepared for conflict, but would not seek it.

'The Ministry of National Defence stresses that it will uphold the principle of preparing for war without seeking war, and with an attitude of not escalating conflict and causing disputes,' it said in a statement.

Beijing's nationalist state-run tabloid Global Times said, citing military analysts, that the exercises were 'unprecedented' and that missiles would fly over Taiwan for the first time.

'This is the first time the PLA will launch live long-range artillery across' the Taiwan Strait, the newspaper said using the Chinese military's formal name, the People's Liberation Army.

Taiwan has described the exercises as 'an irrational move to challenge the international order'.

The Group of Seven industrialised nations also condemned the drills, saying in a statement there was 'no justification to use a visit as pretext for aggressive military activity in the Taiwan Strait'.

Taiwan's Maritime and Port Bureau issued warnings on Wednesday to ships to avoid the areas being used for the Chinese drills.

Even a small disruption in global supply chains, already battered by the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, could prove costly.

'China's planned live-fire exercises are occurring in an incredibly busy waterway,' Nick Marro, the Economist Intelligence Unit's lead analyst for global trade, wrote in a note.

'The shutting down of these transport routes - even temporarily - has consequences not only for Taiwan, but also trade flows tied to Japan and South Korea.'

But several shipping companies contacted by AFP said they were waiting to see the impact of the drills before rerouting.

The ongoing typhoon season made it riskier to divert ships around the eastern coast of Taiwan through the Philippine Sea, some added.

Others said they would stick to their schedules.

'We don't see any impact during (this) period and we don't have any plan on re-routing our vessels,' said Bonnie Huang, a spokesman for Maersk China.

The drills have also hit air routes. Over the last two days, more than 400 flights were cancelled at major airports in Fujian, the Chinese province closest to Taiwan, signalling that the airspace could be used by the military.

The Taiwanese cabinet said the drills would disrupt 18 international routes passing through its flight information region (FIR). 

Beijing has defended its military operations as 'necessary and just', pinning the blame for the escalation on the United States and its allies.

'In the current struggle surrounding Pelosi's Taiwan visit, the United States are the provocateurs, China is the victim,' foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a regular briefing Wednesday.

A Chinese military source also told AFP the exercises would be staged 'in preparation for actual combat'.

'If the Taiwanese forces come into contact with the PLA on purpose and accidentally fire a gun, the PLA will take stern countermeasures, and all the consequences will be borne by the Taiwanese side,' the source said.

Taiwan's 23 million people have long lived with the possibility of an invasion, but that threat has intensified under President Xi Jinping, China's most assertive ruler in a generation.

Just 130 km wide at its narrowest point, the Taiwan Strait is a major international shipping channel and all that lies between democratic Taiwan and its giant authoritarian neighbour.

It is now a flashpoint between the United States, Taiwan and a Chinese leadership keen to project strength ahead of a crucial ruling party meeting this autumn at which Xi is expected to be given an unprecedented third term.

'China's announced military exercises represent a clear escalation from the existing baseline of Chinese military activities around Taiwan and from the last Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995-1996,' said Amanda Hsiao, senior analyst for China at the International Crisis Group.

'Beijing is signalling that it rejects Taiwan's sovereignty.'

Nevertheless, analysts have told AFP that China is not aiming to escalate the situation beyond its control - at least for now.

'Clearly they recognise that there are some limits to what they are willing to do,' Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, told AFP.

And Titus Chen, an associate professor of political science at the National Sun Yat-Sen University in Taiwan, said: 'The last thing Xi wants is an accidental war.'

Matthew Henderson, associate fellow at the Council on Geostrategy, told MailOnline: 'Xi has made so-called 're-unification' with Taiwan his chosen cause and hoped-for legacy as China's greatest leader since Mao.

'It would be as well to assume that in the run-up to the Party Congress, when he intends to secure permanent autocracy, Xi will be willing to take significantly greater risks than [Chinese governments of the past.]'

While the risk of immediate conflict around Taiwan is low, Mr Henderson added that 'it would be an error to assume that the Xi regime is able to hold back from disastrous adventurism when it has painted itself into such a corner over the right to 'reunite' with Taiwan, whose people want nothing of the kind and which the liberal world must not allow.' 

He continued: 'Xi is already using the whole gamut of coercive state powers- including hostile military activity, to try to erode Taiwanese resolve and that of Taiwan's supporters.

'Xi could bring down the Taiwanese government by blockading the island which depends heavily on imported food and other staples. But confidence and resilience is growing, and Xi will not welcome this.

'We should not rule out the possibility of sudden, devastating missile attacks on the central government that would bring a rapid collapse of resistance. Then the rest of the world could protest and sanction to no avail.

'Xi could, if he felt compelled to do so by threats to his personal authority, authorise such an assault at very little notice indeed. He may be counting in this as an element in his current campaign of bluff and coercive pressures on a global front.

'There is still time for the concerted energies of the free world to make it clear to Xi that his agenda to annexe Taiwan and impose unaccountable totalitarian rule on 23 million citizens of a vibrant democracy will never be allowed to succeed.'