Can Boise State have March Madness four-peat? There’s a path, but Broncos can’t slip up

Shaun Goodwin, Idaho Statesman

BOSIE (Idaho Statesman) — Just over a month ago, Boise State basketball lost to Colorado State and fell to 5-4 in Mountain West play. The Broncos lost 75-72 after giving up a 3-pointer with just 3 seconds left, and head coach Leon Rice described the moment as “rock bottom.”

Fast-forward to late February. Since that loss, Boise State has won six of seven games to improve to 11-5 in conference play, and has a legitimate chance of finishing in the top three of the Mountain West standings.

If that happens, the Broncos will be in the thick of the conversation for an NCAA Tournament bid, residing on the so-called bubble that either buoys teams or bursts as they try to make the field.

“After Colorado State and you’re 5-4, you’re middle of the pack, you don’t really know what the rest of your season looked like,” senior forward Tyson Degenhart said Monday. “But we have a group that really came together and had a conscious effort to get better at defense. And you’ve seen that the last seven games, where we’ve really hunkered down on the defensive end and ended up with six wins.”

But Boise State has basically no room for error if it wants to participate in a fourth straight March Madness and pursue that elusive first NCAA tourney victory.

Here’s where the Broncos stand in NCAA mock brackets right now and what they must do as March creeps closer.

Is Boise State predicted to make March Madness? Most expert bracketologists have Boise State just missing the field of 68. Last year, the selection committee had the Broncos as one of the “Last Four In,” meaning they were among the at-large teams that were part of the play-in games in Dayton, Ohio.

The Broncos lost 60-53 to Colorado, making their tournament record an unwanted 0-10.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, whose bracketology is widely considered a top predictor, has Boise State among the Next Four Out as of Tuesday afternoon. Lunardi has the Broncos as the fifth team to miss the field, behind the likes of North Carolina and Indiana.

A similar story can be seen in Jerry Palm’s predictions at CBS Sports, where Boise State is among the First Four Out behind North Carolina and Texas.

The Field of 68, a popular college basketball podcasting network, has Boise State as the first team to miss the field.

The college sports website On3 also has Boise State among its First Four Out.

You get the point. With their win last week over New Mexico, coupled with early-season victories over Clemson and Saint Mary’s — surefire NCAA Tournament teams — the Broncos are in the conversation.

How can Boise State crash into the NCAA Tournament field? A lot can change between now and Selection Sunday on March 16. Putting aside the potential of winning the Mountain West Tournament and earning an automatic bid, Boise State has a fairly favorable end-of-season schedule that offers good opportunities.

There is a home game Wednesday night against Utah State, road games at Fresno State and Air Force, and the regular-season finale at home against Colorado State.

Both Utah State (24-4, 14-3) and Colorado State (18-9, 12-4) sit higher than BSU (19-8, 11-5) in the Mountain West standings, and the Aggies are practically an NCAA tourney lock.

The Broncos are 12-1 at home this season, with the only loss coming against San Diego State in early January. Boise State is just 4-5 in true road games, but the Broncos have defeated the teams below them in the standings, and Fresno State and Air Force fit that bill. They are a combined 2-31 in conference play.

The flip side to that is that an upset loss to either would be a death blow. The most difficult game is Wednesday’s 8:30 p.m. tip against Utah State at ExtraMile Arena. The Aggies beat Boise State 81-79 in Logan, Utah, in January. They rank 33rd in the NET, the tool used by the NCAA to evaluate a team’s quality and resume. Boise State sits at 45th, meaning a win on Wednesday would qualify as a strong Quad 2 victory.

Though above the Broncos in the standings right now, Colorado State is not a threat to make the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference tourney. The Rams are 62 in the NET rankings, but they do own the win over Boise State already.

Simply put, winning the four remaining regular season games would put the Broncos on the verge of an at-large berth, but it still could come down to their Mountain West Tournament showing. Within the league, New Mexico and Utah State figure to make the field, and San Diego State is on the bubble with Boise State, though residing on its positive side in most mock brackets right now. The Aztecs (18-7, 11-5) have the advantage of sweeping the Broncos in the regular season, and also have big wins over Creighton and Houston to boost their resume.

In Lunardi’s latest ESPN bracket, San Diego State is a 10 seed, New Mexico is an 8 and Utah State is a 9, showing the fine line that Mountain West teams walk. Last season, five conference teams made the field, something that became a big topic of conversation.

Colorado State won a play-in game as a 10 seed and then lost by 12 to Texas; New Mexico, an 11 seed, got blasted by Clemson by 21; Nevada, a 10, lost by three points to Dayton; and San Diego State, a 5 seed, made the Sweet 16 with wins over 12 seed UAB and 13 seed Yale.