Asteroid hurtling toward Earth? Odds for impact keep increasing

(NewsNation) — The odds keep growing that an asteroid big enough to wipe out a city will collide with Earth in seven years, according to NASA.

But the chance of an actual impact is still quite slim.

NASA first discovered "2024 YR4," the 130-to-300-foot-wide asteroid, in December 2024, and found it only had roughly a 1% chance of impacting Earth on its trajectory, NewsNation's Los Angeles affiliate KTLA reported.

On Jan. 27, 2025, the asteroid surpassed a 1% chance of hitting Earth, an “important threshold,” according to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

“Currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%,” NASA said in a release.

On Feb. 7, the asteroid's chances of hitting our planet grew to 2.3%, and as of Feb. 18, there's a 3.1% chance that 2024 YR4 will impact Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.

This means the odds are now one in 32.

There is a 96.9% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth, though NASA said this rare asteroid has a significant risk now, rating it at Torino Scale 3, a ranking of potential impacts.

“In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 is on an impact trajectory, the impact would occur somewhere along a risk corridor which extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia,” JPL said in a release.

NASA said its James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March 2025 “to better assess the asteroid’s size.”