Will Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment vote succeed?

Nat'l Assembly seeks to vote at 7 p.m., Saturday; removal hinges on 8 ballots by PPP lawmakers

By Kwak Yeon-soo

The National Assembly is set to vote, Saturday, on President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment, following his short-lived declaration of martial law, which is widely regarded as a violation of the Constitution.

Despite the uproar the law caused and nationwide anger from the public and their calls for Yoon’s ouster, it is unclear whether the impeachment motion will be passed, as the ruling People Power Party (PPP) is officially against it.

The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) said, Thursday, it would push for the vote in a plenary parliamentary session at around 7 p.m. on Saturday.

On Wednesday, 190 lawmakers of the DPK and five other opposition parties as well as one independent lawmaker submitted a bill for the impeachment motion, which was then reported to the plenary session at 12:48 a.m. on Thursday, a procedure for a full-house vote.

The bill must be voted on between 24 to 72 hours after submission.

“We want to give enough time to PPP lawmakers to deliberate over their decision on Yoon’s unconstitutional coup attempt or treason charge. Now is the time to act according to one’s conscience, not based on political interests,” Rep. Jo Seoung-lae, a senior DPK spokesperson, told reporters after a Supreme Council meeting.

The impeachment motion requires the approval of at least two-thirds of Assembly members, meaning at least 200 votes out of the total 300. Since 192 of these members belong to the opposition bloc, at least eight PPP members must support the bill for the motion to pass.

If that occurs, Yoon’s authority will be immediately suspended and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will assume the role of acting president. Yoon’s exercise of power will be suspended until the Constitutional Court reaches a decision on the impeachment, which could take up to 180 days. If the court upholds the impeachment, Yoon will be ousted and a new presidential election must take place within 60 days.

While acknowledging that the martial law was unconstitutional, the PPP said it would block the passage of the impeachment motion.

"As the ruling party leader, I will work to ensure that the impeachment motion does not pass, in order to prevent damage to the people and supporters (of the ruling bloc) that would arise from unexpected chaos," PPP leader Han Dong-hoon said during a Supreme Council meeting, Thursday.

"I'm not trying to advocate unconstitutional martial law," he said. "Those responsible for causing chaos by declaring unconstitutional martial law, including the president, must be held strictly accountable," he said, telling Yoon to leave the party.

But he also said, "We need to prevent a force that attemps to take power to escape criminal charges," indicating Yoon's impeachment is likely to lead to DPK leader Lee Jae-myung becoming the next president. Lee is currently on trial for multiple criminal charges.

The DPK criticized the PPP's stance and urged lawmakers from the ruling party to vote in favor of ousting the president.

"As Han said, the martial law was an unconstitutional, illegal act," DPK floor leader Rep. Park Chan-dae said at a party meeting. "The PPP's official stance to oppose the impeachment means they agree with the martial law or are complicit in treason."

Experts were cautious about predicting the outcome of the vote.

“I think the motion will likely be passed if the ruling party leaves the choice up to PPP lawmakers themselves. Even some lawmakers from the pro-Yoon faction are deliberating whether to vote for impeachment. But I heard that the ruling party may block its members from entering the plenary session on Saturday. In that case, things may get tricky. But opposition parties will likely submit the motion again and again until it is passed,” political commentator Rhee Jong-hoon said.

Eom Kyeong-young, director of the Zeitgeist Institute, a private political think tank, said whether the Assembly passes the motion hinges on Yoon’s latest approval rating to be released on Friday.

“If Yoon’s approval rating falls below 10 percent on Friday, it’s highly likely that the impeachment motion will be passed on Saturday. Lawmakers, especially those in rural areas, are very sensitive to the public sentiment and polls. Although the PPP is discussing follow-up measures after the martial law chaos, their actions are falling short of public expectations,” Eom said.

Realmeter surveyed 504 people aged 18 or older, Wednesday, and found that 73.6 percent of respondents supported Yoon's impeachment, while 24 percent opposed it. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

On Saturday night, the Assembly will also conduct a revote on a bill mandating a special counsel investigation into corruption allegations involving first lady Kim Keon Hee.

Meanwhile, the Assembly passed impeachment motions against the Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) Chair Choe Jae-hae for failing to audit the presidential residence relocation, and against three prosecutors, including the chief of the Seoul Central District Prosecutors Office Lee Chang-soo, for not prosecuting Yoon's wife.

The motions passed with 188 votes in favor and 4 votes against Choe, marking the first time the head of the state audit agency was impeached by parliament. The motion against Lee passed with 185 votes in favor and 3 votes against, while members of the PPP boycotted the ballot.

With the passage of the motions, all four will be suspended from their duties until the Constitutional Court rules on whether to uphold their impeachment. The impeachment motions were originally scheduled for a plenary vote on Wednesday but were postponed due to the martial law fiasco.