By Choo Jae-woo
Donald Trump's election as the next U.S. president signifies a significant shift in U.S. foreign and domestic policy, with major implications for China. Both China and Russia appear to welcome his victory, expecting his leadership to deepen societal divisions in the U.S., creating an ideal environment for influence operations. China has long engaged in such activities, targeting a polarized America divided between progressive and conservative factions. Trump’s return presents opportunities for China to destabilize the U.S. further at minimal cost.
Trump's presidency is likely to intensify confrontation with China. A report by the Heritage Foundation, 2025 Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise ("Project 2025"), outlines a vision aligned with this approach. While Democrats and media outlets criticized the report as a blueprint for authoritarian governance, Trump denied involvement, though his campaign platform, Agenda 47, overlaps significantly with its recommendations. Project 2025 emphasizes centralization, domestic reform and decoupling from China, aligning with Trump’s focus on economic security as national security.
Notably, 267 participants contributed to Project 2025, many of whom were part of Trump's previous campaigns or administration. Trump himself praised the Heritage Foundation’s influence in shaping policy, signaling potential alignment. The report serves as a strategic guide for a second Trump administration, focusing on a strategic and economic war with China. It emphasizes domestic innovation and reforms as prerequisites for prevailing in this conflict, underscoring alliances as central to U.S. foreign policy.
Project 2025 places defending Taiwan at the heart of U.S. military and strategic interests, supported by alliances in the Indo-Pacific. Proposed measures include strengthening missile defenses, enhancing nuclear deterrence and encouraging greater European and NATO engagement. It also advocates increased burden-sharing among allies, particularly in confronting challenges posed by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. For North Korea, the report envisions South Korea addressing conventional threats while enhancing missile defense systems, such as deploying additional THAAD units.
Bipartisan consensus suggests that the next U.S. administration, regardless of party, will prioritize a multilateral Indo-Pacific strategy post-election. Trump’s approach will likely demand greater burden-sharing from allies, prompting shifts in the roles of the U.S.-ROK (South Korea) alliance and U.S. Forces Korea. Over the past decade, the U.S. has restructured bilateral alliances, particularly with Japan, to counter China’s growing military influence.
Tensions in the Indo-Pacific have escalated since 2010, exemplified by territorial disputes over the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Dao). China's provocations prompted U.S. policy responses, including reaffirming the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty’s coverage of these islands. This led to the 2015 revision of the U.S.-Japan Defense Guidelines, formalizing Japan’s right to collective self-defense. By 2021, U.S.-Japan summit statements underscored the importance of Taiwan Strait stability, and in 2022, both nations agreed on acquiring capabilities to strike enemy missile bases.
The U.S.-Japan alliance continues to strengthen. In April 2023, leaders agreed to modernize command and control structures and enhance military interoperability. This includes integrating U.S. forces in Japan with Japan’s newly established Joint Command. The nations also plan to develop advanced weapons collaboratively through the Defense Industrial Cooperation and Acquisition Support (DICAS) forum.
The U.S. has also expanded trilateral and multilateral alliances. After years of stagnation, Japan and Australia signed a new security agreement in 2022, driven by China’s growing military influence. Negotiations are underway for Japan to join AUKUS in advanced military technology. Japan has also signed Reciprocal Access Agreements with the U.K. and Australia, enabling joint training and streamlined military operations.
These efforts reflect a broader strategy to counter China’s military rise. However, persuading regional nations to confront China remains challenging due to their economic ties with Beijing. The U.S. has leaned on obligations under alliance treaties to garner support for joint responses to regional threats. For instance, the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty and the ANZUS Treaty with Australia and New Zealand mandate collective responses to threats in the Pacific. Similarly, the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty includes areas like the East China Sea within its defense scope.
The primary motivation behind the U.S. efforts to solidify military cooperation in the Indo-Pacific is to counter China's rising military power. However, persuading regional countries to confront China militarily is challenging due to their deep economic ties with Beijing. The U.S. has thus invoked longstanding obligations under alliance treaties that require a joint response to threats in the Pacific region.
For instance, the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty and the ANZUS Treaty with Australia and New Zealand stipulate joint responses to threats in the Pacific. Similarly, the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty defined "Far East" as its defense scope, interpreted to include critical areas like the East China Sea. While the U.S.-Taiwan Defense Treaty was terminated following U.S.-China diplomatic normalization, its provisions continue to shape America's commitment to Taiwan's security.
For South Korea, the U.S.-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty of 1953 also includes a clause requiring joint responses to threats in the Pacific. The U.S. has increasingly urged South Korea to clarify its position on a potential Taiwan contingency. Historically focused on deterring North Korea, the U.S.-ROK alliance may face a shift in its primary objectives, including expanded roles for U.S. Forces Korea in the broader Indo-Pacific region. Initiatives like the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) reflect these evolving priorities.
Although the U.S.-Taiwan Defense Treaty was terminated in 1979, its provisions continue to influence America’s commitment to Taiwan’s security. The U.S.-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty of 1953 also includes provisions for joint responses to Pacific threats. Recently, the U.S. has urged South Korea to clarify its stance on Taiwan, reflecting an evolving role for the U.S.-ROK alliance. Historically focused on deterring North Korea, this alliance may see expanded objectives, with U.S. Forces Korea playing a broader role in the Indo-Pacific. Initiatives like the NCG reflect these shifts.
As the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy evolves, South Korea faces pressure to redefine its alliance role. This includes addressing Taiwan-related scenarios, testing the nation's commitment to its global pivotal state diplomatic strategy. The trajectory of U.S. foreign policy under Trump or any administration will shape the regional balance of power, with profound implications for China, Taiwan and broader Indo-Pacific dynamics.
Choo Jae-woo is a professor at Kyung Hee University.
English (United States) ·