Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin are seemingly in a tight race according to an election exit poll released during The Late Late Show on Friday night.
The poll shows Sinn Féin leading with 21.1 percent of the popular vote, closely followed by Fine Gael at 21 percent, and Fianna Fáil at 19.5 percent.
With a margin of error around 1.4 percent, it's too close to call ahead of Saturday's vote count which kicks off at 9am. The Green Party polled at 4 percent, roughly half their 2020 vote share.
Labour is at five percent, while the Social Democrats have done well with 5.8 percent. Aontú also performed well with 3.6 percent, People Before Profit is at 3.1, and Independent Ireland is at 2.2 percent.
A total of 12.7 percent of respondents voted for independent candidates. If these exit poll results hold true when counting begins on Saturday, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil could be heading back into government, possibly needing support from independents or smaller parties.
Despite potentially winning the popular vote for the second consecutive general election, Sinn Féin appears to lack a clear route to Government Buildings. Fine Gael's popularity took a hit in opinion polls following a series of campaign blunders and controversies, reports the Irish Mirror.
The candidacy of Senator John McGahon, who was found civilly liable for assault and ordered to pay €39,000 in damages by the High Court, was among those included. The incident's CCTV footage was widely circulated on social media.
Simon Harris also faced backlash for his abrupt interaction with a care worker in Kanturk, Co Cork. Although he later apologised, the controversy intensified when it was revealed that a member of his staff had contacted RTÉ about its use of a clip showing the incident.
A week before the election was called on November 8, the party held a six-point lead over its closest competitors. However, this lead dwindled during the campaign, and the party stood at 20 percent in a Tuesday opinion poll.
Sinn Féin also stood at 20 percent, while Fianna Fáil was at 21 percent. Tonight's exit poll was conducted by Ipsos BandA for RTÉ, the Irish Times, and Trinity College Dublin, surveying around 5,000 people across the country after they had voted.
While exit polls are generally very accurate, there can be some discrepancies, especially in a closely contested race like the current campaign. In 2020, an exit poll had the three largest parties all tied on 22 percent.
However, when the votes were counted, Fianna Fáil received 22.2 percent of the vote, Sinn Féin received 24.5 percent, and Fine Gael received 20.9 percent.
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