Informal vote counts in Ireland's General Election centres suggest potential breakthroughs and challenges for some established incumbents, following an exit poll that showed the three main parties nearly neck and neck. The tallies, conducted by party activists and volunteers from 9am, provide a more localised view of the potential result than Friday night's exit poll.
Sinn Fein, the largest opposition party, held 21.1% of first-preference votes, slightly ahead of current coalition partners Fine Gael and Fianna Fail at 21% and 19.5% respectively, according to the Ipsos BandA Exit Poll commissioned by RTE, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin.
Now that the boxes are open, the votes must be sorted before the formal count begins, a process that could take days due to Ireland's complex proportional representation system with a single transferable vote (PR-STV), where candidates are ranked by preference.
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This means that voting slips need to be counted multiple times, a task that can last days. The early inconclusive indications have shifted speculation towards the complicated maths of government formation, as the country's several smaller parties and many independents potentially vie for a place in government.
First counts, which could see the election of new members of parliament, known as TDs in Ireland, are expected later on Saturday.
The counts are indicating potential difficulties for Fianna Fail in Wicklow, where the party's sole candidate in the constituency, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly, is anticipated to face a tough fight, with the possibility of losing his seat looming. Green Party leader Roderic O'Gorman, who leads the junior partner in the outgoing coalition, also appears vulnerable, reports the Irish Mirror.
He had garnered 7% of the votes in the unofficial poll with over half of the boxes tallied by midday. Attention is also turning to independent candidate Gerard Hutch, who currently ranks fourth in the four-seat constituency of Dublin Central following the completion of the unofficial tallies there.
Last spring, Mr Hutch was acquitted by the non-jury Special Criminal Court of the murder of David Byrne, marking one of the initial fatal incidents in the Hutch-Kinahan gangland feud. Mr Byrne, aged 33, was fatally shot six times during a busy boxing weigh-in at the Regency Hotel in February 2016.
A Special Criminal Court judge labelled Mr Hutch, 61, as the patriarchal figurehead of the Hutch criminal organisation and stated he had been involved in "serious criminal conduct". The outcome in this constituency is being keenly observed as other candidates await the possibility that transfers from those eliminated might ultimately push him out of the race.
Initially, it seemed unlikely that a single smaller party would be needed to secure a majority. This has led to speculation about the potential for a coalition involving four parties or independents - a scenario some view as a recipe for unstable governance.
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael leaders have consistently dismissed the idea of a coalition with Sinn Fein due to significant policy differences. Consequently, the opposition party faces a more difficult path to government formation.
However, seemingly insurmountable political differences have been overcome as recently as 2020 when an inconclusive general election result led to Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, two parties born from opposing sides of Ireland's 1920s Civil War, agreeing to put aside nearly a century of hostility and share power in the outgoing coalition. This was despite similar pre-election pledges against forming coalitions.
In that election, Sinn Fein won the popular vote but didn't run enough candidates to secure sufficient Dail seats for a realistic shot at government formation. The transfer of votes based on voter preferences, a crucial aspect of PR-STV, is a key determinant in the final outcome of any Irish election.
This system allows candidates to secure a seat even if they don't receive enough votes in the first count. Over 3.6 million people registered to vote in the election, which covered 43 constituencies and focused on issues such as the housing crisis, immigration surge, cost of living, economic management, and potential future trade shocks.
The country's parliament has a total of 174 seats to be filled, a record number. However, as the Ceann Comhairle, or speaker of the house, is automatically returned, only 173 seats will be filled during the counting process.
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