Donald Trump's China policy could pit deal makers against ideologues: analysts

Throughout his winning campaign, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump pitched himself as a master dealmaker, vowing to secure the best economic terms for America and insisting that doing so would restore its global supremacy.

His "America-first" mantra won over many voters — he appears to have won the popular vote as well as the Electoral College — even when many priorities he has put under the slogan diverge ideologically.

While he threatened Beijing with heavier tariffs, for example, Trump urged Taiwan to fund its own defense capability and accused the self-governing island of "stealing" American jobs in the semiconductor industry.

During his first term, he launched a trade war with China but struck a deal with the country after Beijing agreed to buy more American products to address the trade deficit. The agreement ultimately failed to fix the problem.

Ahead of Trump's second term, some in Beijing view his transactional approach to foreign affairs as offering a potential path to improved bilateral ties, especially given his network of billionaire advisers, many with significant business interests in China.

But other China experts in the U.S. have voiced less optimism based on whom Trump has announced will join his administration and those reportedly in the running.

These analysts contend that the president-elect's hard-line appointees and nominees may curb his deal-making impulses on issues like trade, technology and Taiwan. That would create tensions at the White House as Trump touts a tougher stance on China.

On Tuesday, Trump's team announced that U.S. congressman Mike Waltz, a Florida Republican and China hawk, would be named his national security adviser.

Waltz thanked Trump for the opportunity to serve in the coming cabinet.

"America will keep its allies close, we will not be afraid to confront our adversaries and we will invest in the technologies that keep our country strong," the China hawk posted in social media.

Waltz, a member of the U.S. House China task force, has warned that the U.S. remained ill-prepared for potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

In a Nov. 2 oped for The Economist, he wrote that the next American president should focus on "countering the greater threat from the Chinese Communist Party."

Waltz also claimed that Beijing was exploiting a "confusing American policy" relating to Taiwan, citing President Joe Biden's promises on multiple occasions to defend the self-governing island, followed by his staff walking back such comments.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary.

Most countries, including the U.S., do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.

As for other members of Trump's foreign-policy team, multiple American media outlets have reported that U.S. senator Marco Rubio, another Florida Republican, could be nominated as secretary of state.

Sanctioned twice by Beijing in 2020, Rubio has pushed for sanctions on mainland officials over alleged human-rights abuses against Uygur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in the country.

Rubio has also criticized Beijing for its coronavirus pandemic response and called for a wholesale removal of U.S. supply chains from China.

Rush Doshi of the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based think tank, said Trump's selections were the "strongest indicator so far that the White House will push a tough China policy."

The "key question is whether this team can push back on Trump's transactionalism with China, which previously undercut his staff's competitive efforts," Doshi added in a social-media post.

In his initial picks, "Trump has put people in positions of authority who have a track record of being very wary of China," according to Lily McElwee of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, another Washington-based think tank.

"I don't think we're going to see any quick deals being made," McElwee said, noting that while Trump "will be the boss" and "in control," he would inevitably be "influenced by his advisers."

Isaac Stone Fish of Strategy Risks, a New York-based global risk firm focused on China, believed "there certainly will be a tension in the Trump administration" between those who "want to make a deal and those who take a more principled stance on democracy promotion, human rights and countering" China's military.

To think of Trump as only transactional would be "naive," Stone Fish said. "One needs to understand his very real ability to often be swayed by the last person who talks to him and his very strong views on reducing U.S. troop exposure in the region."

"That is certainly a positive for Beijing and that is something that I think people in the cabinet are going to push back very strongly against," he added.

Late Tuesday, Trump announced that he had selected Pete Hegseth, a Fox News host and U.S. Army veteran, as his new defense secretary. Hegseth recently claimed that Beijing is "building an army to defeat America."

The full composition of Trump's cabinet remained unclear, with key positions at the Commerce and Treasury departments still unfilled, noted McElwee.

Reports have circulated about Robert Lighthizer returning as U.S. trade representative, but Trump's team has yet to confirm this.

"It will be important to watch those picks as well," McElwee added, "because as in any administration, there will inevitably be an interplay between security agencies and economic agencies."

Scott Bessent, an economic adviser to Trump and former Yale University professor, is considered a front-runner to replace Janet Yellen at Treasury, Reuters has reported. Bessent has praised Trump's use of tariffs as a strategic bargaining tool.

Meanwhile, Linda McMahon, who led the Small Business Administration during the first Trump presidency, has emerged as a potential commerce secretary, having earlier been regarded as a top contender to run Treasury.

In the Biden administration, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo banned the export of advanced chip technology to China.

What makes Trump challenging is his contradictory views, according to Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Centre, a non-partisan Washington-based think tank.

Rival factions emerged in his first administration between traditional neoconservative Republicans "primacists" and those with more "restraint-oriented instincts," Grieco explained, saying Rubio and Waltz fall in the first camp of putting U.S. leadership first.

"With these recent appointments," she said, "it seems that the neoconservative primacists clearly have the upper hand."

Read the full story at SCMP.