Challenges of second Trump presidency: Korean perspective

By Cho Hee-kyoung

In the end, it did not come down to Pennsylvania, nor Michigan, nor Georgia. It was all of them, and even Nevada. Contrary to a widespread expectation of a very close race, Trump won hands down both the popular vote and the electoral college vote in last week’s U.S. presidential election. Despite a barrage of events that would have sunken any ordinary presidential nominee including two criminal convictions, Trump managed to flip back all of the swing states that Biden had taken in 2020 and then some. Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, he is set to return to the pinnacle of power once more and it is with trepidation that we watch Trump 2.0 unfold.

Korea, with its unique geopolitical position and close ties to the United States, stands at the intersection of some of Trump's most polarizing foreign policies. One thing is certain: his "America First" stance would remain central to his agenda. In the past, this has meant a more transactional approach to alliances and global security. Trump will most certainly call for a further increase in contributions by South Korea to support U.S. troops stationed on the peninsula. The current contributions by Korea towards the cost of stationing the troops hover somewhere north of $1 billion annually. Trump has claimed that this will be raised to $10 billion per year, a sum not easily countenanced by a long-time ally.

A second Trump administration will also likely continue a hardline stance against China, potentially increasing the pressure on Korea to align more closely with U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific region. The economic rivalry between the U.S. and China could also place Korean companies in a difficult position as they navigate restrictions, tariffs and export controls that might emerge from a renewed trade war. Korea will find itself walking an ever-lengthening tightrope between the United States, its closest security partner, and China, its largest trading counterpart. Pressure will come not only from the U.S. but also from China as previous experience has amply shown.

In some quarters, the second Trump term is raising hopes for jumpstarting inter-Korean dialogue. One of Trump’s most surprising moves during his first term was his engagement with North Korea. His unconventional approach, meeting directly with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, was both groundbreaking and controversial. Although the meetings ultimately fell short of achieving anything concrete, they set a new precedent for summit diplomacy. With an eye on a Nobel Peace Prize, Trump might attempt to revive these discussions, potentially creating another opportunity for normalizing inter-Korean relations.

However, expectations should be tempered. While Trump’s approach in the past was unorthodox, it was also highly unpredictable. A second attempt at dialogue with North Korea could face similar challenges, with little guarantee that Pyongyang would engage in good faith or agree to denuclearization. There is also the risk that a breakdown in talks could lead to a heightened threat on the peninsula, with Trump possibly reverting to his earlier “maximum pressure” stance. And this time around, there is a danger that South Korea will be cut out of the process all together.

High politics is not the sole arena. Another term with Trump at the helm could impact South Korea’s economy on multiple fronts. Trump has been vocal about his desire to “bring back American jobs” and reduce reliance on foreign imports. This has previously translated into tariffs and trade barriers aimed at countries exporting to the United States, including South Korea. Trump’s focus on rebalancing trade deficits could push for revisions to the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA), potentially leading to higher tariffs on Korean goods — bad news for an export-driven economy like Korea.

With Trump in the White House, ensuring that South Korea is treated with respect as a long-term ally and gets a fair and reasonable deal will be a challenging task even if we had a Kissinger-like diplomatic genius in the driver’s seat. But right now, Korea’s foreign policy is largely driven by Kim Tae-hyo, the principal deputy national security adviser, who had once listed himself among the ‘New Right’ intellectuals and who has a record of taking deeply pro-Japanese stance on matters of significant historical importance for Korea. Between Kim and President Yoon, whose conduct of foreign affairs has earned the moniker ‘humiliation diplomacy,’ things are looking dire indeed.

Korea should be doing its utmost to strengthen its strategic autonomy and seek to bolster relationships with other regional powers and like-minded allies. But with President Yoon mired in all sorts of domestic troubles in every sense of the word, the current administration seems to be using foreign affairs as a means to distract attention away from the jaw-dropping revelations, allegations and accusations that are piling up at the feet of the first couple. Unless the Korean government gets its act together, it will end up being Trumped and it will be the people who will suffer the consequences.

Cho Hee-kyoung is a professor of law at Hongik University.