The Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2015-2034 prepared by Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) was submitted to the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) recently for the approval of the Commission. The plan has been compiled based on the results of the latest electricity expansion planning studies conducted by the CEB for the planning period of 2015-2034.
“The total estimated cost to implement the expansions and additions to this 20 year base case plan is approximately US$ 6.6 billion including the cost of development of Non-Conventional Renewable Energy. The plan gives a comprehensive view of the existing generating system, future electricity demand and future power generation options in the country. It also provides detailed information on generation planning methodology, system demand forecast and investment and implementation plans for the proposed projects,” PUCSL Director General, Damitha Kumarasinghe said.
According to the plan, average annual growth rate of energy demand for next five years would be 6.24%, while average annual growth rate of peak demand for next five years would be 5.32%. Therefore, the objective of the Plan is to cater to this forecasted demand growth by identifying the least cost plant addition sequence which is based on the most sustainable technology to provide the most cost-effective service and to avoid electricity shortfalls in the country. In line with the estimated demand growth, installed capacity in the national grid would be around 4,800MW by the end of 2020.
The proposed energy mix for the next twenty years will consist of major hydro, coal, dumped storage hydro, combined cycle, oil and gas turbine plants. According to the plan, when identifying the technology options from this generation mix, least cost would be the major concern while being environmental friendly would be an added value.
The methodology deployed in the study selects plant additions from given thermal as well as hydropower generation expansion candidates, which will, together with existing and committed power plants meet the future electricity demand with a given level of reliability complying with National Energy Policy and Strategies.
“Ultimately the plan serves as a guideline to facilitate the decision makers in making decisions in line with national policy objectives, by exploring and evaluating various generation technology options in different situations. The Commission has opened a public consultation on this plan,” PUCSL Director General said.
The plan is now available at www.pucsl.gov.lk for reference. A printed copy of this report also is available at the information centre of the Commission. Those who are interested can submit their written comments/submissions to the Commission by post/fax or e-mail and even the comments can be made online at www.pucsl.gov.lk before September 21, 2015.